Weekly Predictions: Week 8

This has been a season of steam rolling. There were 6 games decided by 28 points or more last week. Vegas said it took its biggest hit on record because of so many blow outs.
Tough week for picks this week though. There are some actual good games in the NFL. I am loving the road teams in college.

NCAA: (picks in bold. Home team in CAPS)
VIRGINIA TECH (-16.5) over Unc: NC has been terrible this year, and things are not gonna get better in Blacksburg.
Wvu (-3) over SOUTH FLORIDA: A promising South Florida looked very pedestrian getting blown out by Pitt last week. WVU will not make the same mistake it did last week, taking a weaker opponent lightly.
Cincinnati (-16.5) over SYRACUSE: They can't wait to start playing basketball games in the Carrier Dome in up-state New York.
Central Michigan (+6) over BOSTON COLLEGE: I got LeFevour.... and the only prescription.... is more David LeFevour.
Duke (+7) over VIRGINIA: I was in Charlottesville on Halloween for a home game 3 years ago... not that intimidating.
Indiana (+17.5) over IOWA: Iowa can't seem to blow anybody out. They are 2 seconds from loosing the Big 10. They will win, but not by more than 17.
NC State (+9) over FLORIDA ST: 2 highly inconsistent teams. Who knows what will happen so I take the points.
Georgia Tech (-11.5) over VANDERBILT: Tech will run for at least 300 yards this game.
Ole Miss (-4) over AUBURN: The Tigers have gotten progressively worse after an awesome start.
Georgia (+15) over Florida: The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be close as long as Georgia doesn't turn the ball over and let the game get away from them. Florida's offense is still struggling and Tebow is looking not-so-divine anymore.
Cal (-6.5) over ARIZONA ST: Cal came back strong after that 2 game embarrassment against Oregon and USC. They will continue this as Javid Best gets his feet back under him.
Michigan (-7) over ILLINOIS: Zookville is the worst team in the Big 10 not in the state of Indiana.
OKLAHOMA ST (+9) over Texas: This game will come down to QB play. McCoy has not looked great this year despite a good week last week.
Penn State (-14.5) over NORTHWESTERN: PSU went to the Big House and proved they are a team to be reckoned with despite the cake schedule.
FRESNO ST (-17) over Utah State: Fresno has the nations leading rusher. Expect 200 yards.

Miss St. (+3.5) over KENTUCKY: Miss State has played both Florida and LSU tough this year. Kentucky was down by 30 after the first quarter against Florida.
South Carolina (+5.5) over TENNESSEE: The under for this game is set at 40 for a reason. No offense means close game.
OREGON (+3) over Usc: Game of the week: This game has so many BCS implications its ridiculous. Eugene is one of the hardest places in the country to play.
Michigan St. (-3.5) over MINNESOTA: Michigan St.= good. Minnesota = bad.

Pick of the week:
WISCONSIN (-6.5) over Purdue: Don't think I am fooled by a win against Ohio State, Purdue.
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Southern Miss: Farve's college team will have a tough time on the road against the Heisman candidate.

Heisman Leader this week:
1. C.J. Spiller - RB Clemson-
108 rushes 547 yds 3 TDs

18 catches 267 yds 2 TDs

9 punt returns 182 yds 1 TD

12 kick returns 459 yds 3 TDs

If you are keeping track at home, thats 1455 totals yards and 9 TDs. He has a play of over 60 yards in every game this year. If he were on a better team, he would be at the top of everyone's list.

2. Mark Ingram -RB Alabama
3. Case Keenum - QB Houston
4. Kellen Moore - QB Boise State
5. Jimmy Clausen - QB Notre Dame

BCS Bowl Projections
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Penn State
Sugar: Alabama vs. TCU
Fiesta: Boise St. vs. USC
Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
Championship: Florida vs. Texas

NFL (picks in bold. Home team in CAPS)
Denver (+3.5) over BALTIMORE: This is gonna be a field goal game.
CHICAGO (-13) over Cleveland: Chicago needs to come out and roll a bad team, just like they did to Detroit earlier this year.
Houston (-3.5) over BUFFALO: Buffalo's offense is not good enough to keep up with Matt Schaub and the Texans' explosive offense.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota: I just don't think the Pack will let Favre come in and take this. Too much riding on this game.
INDIANAPOLIS (-12) over San Francisco: This is an awfully high line for this game, but Matt Ryan torched SF's secondary, and NOONE can stop Peyton Manning so far this year.
Miami (+3.5) over NY JETS: Miami is gonna deviate some from the wildcat and throw some 4 wide on them.
DETROIT (-3) over St. Louis: Detroit has more talent and they are at home.
Seattle (+9.5) over DALLAS: This is the kind of "let-down" game that Dallas has every year. Remember when Steven Jackson ran for 160 yards and 3 touchdowns. Trap game last year. Trap game this year.
SAN DIEGO (-16.5) over Oakland: This is just an easy one to see coming. Second straight blow out for the Charger offense.
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE: Look for the pair of hyphens, Mike Sims-Walker and Maurice Jones-Drew, to tear up that terrible secondary.
ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina: Cards picked off Eli 3 times last week. Look for 3 more against "Jakey Jakey About to Make ANOTHER Big Mistaky" Delhomme.
NY Giants (NL) over PHILADELPHIA: Philly has a lot of holes on that offensive line that the Giants pass rush will expose. Westbrook is probably hurt still too.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Atlanta: This could become a shoot out, and New Orleans has proved it's defense can stop good offenses. Atlanta has not.

Picks
Bal, Chi, Hou, GB, Ind, Mia, Det, Dal, SD, Jax, Arz, NYG, NO

Hot Chick of the week:
Kim Kardashian
In honor of Reggie Bush's leap/hurdle from the 5-yard line, we will show is girlfriend. (always worth a look)

Weekend Review: Week 7

I have always been a bigger fan of the NFL than NCAA. Maybe it's because the Steelers won the Super Bowl last year. Maybe it's becuase both of my fantasy teams are tanking. But either way, have you noticed how much more fun it has been to follow college football so far??

Finally got back to .500 on the college football lines.

NCAA
Spread 12-8
Season: 53-52-1

5 Notes from the weekend:
1) TCU’s defense looks better every week. They have a very serious chance to run the table.
2) When the fuck did Pitt become so good? Am I imagining things?
3) Just as Alabama started showing they are the best team in the country, they lay an egg against Tennessee… AT HOME!!!
4) There is a good chance the best team in college football is not in the SEC.
5) It is hard to get a young team, like Miami FL, to play consistently week in and week out.

NFL
Spread: 8-4-1
Season: 55-47-1
Picks: 9-4
Season: 70-33

5 Notes from the weekend:
1) Before the Saints game stated I said “Darren Sharper will intercept Henne for a touchdown today.” When the score was 24-3 I said, “No need to worry. A Drew Brees lead Saints is not out of this game.” They once again proved they don’t have to throw every down to win.
2) Brad Childress really knows how to loose games. Say what you want about Favre’s 2 turnovers, Childress had terrible play-calling in that game.
3) Once again, very good teams look very good against very bad teams.
4) If you look at the stat lines from the Vikings-Steelers and Patriots-Buccaneers games, they are almost identical. But scores are MUCH different.
Offensive Yards: Minn. 423 Pit. 281 (Score: Pit 27, Min 17)
Offensive Yards: NE 415 TB 261 (Score NE 35, TB 7)
5) The Eagles, Colts, Bengals, Bills, Jets, Chargers and Packers combined to commit 0 turnovers this week. They forced a combined 23 turnovers. Needless to say all of them won.

Weekly Predictions: Week 7

Love some of the lines this week for teasers.

NCAA (picks in bold. home team in CAPS)
Gerogia Tech (-5) over VIRGINIA: Tech is a much better team.
MIAMI (FL) (-7) over Clemson: Clemson sucks and has to travel to Miami. This line should be higher.
Central Michigan (-8) over BOWLING GREEN: Maybe I have swine flu, because I have got LeFevour.
South Florida (+6.5) over PITT: I dont think Pitt is a touchdown better than the Bulls. Look for that solid SFU defense to keep this game close.
WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) over Uconn: Tough week in Storres is not gonna get any better with a trip to Morgantown.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-13) over Vanderbilt: The other USC plays some solid defense, especially at home.
Oklahoma St. (-9.5) over BAYLOR: There is no one on Balyor that can move the ball.
Alabama (-14) over TENNESSEE: Expect Alabama to show how much better they are than Florida. Look for their defense to score 2 touchdowns against the Vols terrible QBs.
Oregon (-9.5) over WASHINGTON: Oregon continues its dominance of the PAC-10 this year.
MICHIGAN (+4.5) over Penn State: The Lions have had trouble in the Big House in recent years. Their defense will keep them close, in a low scoring game in cool rainy Ann Arbor.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over Ucla: Zona QB Nick Foles has been great recently.
Louisville (+18) over CINCINNATI: Loves the Bearcats, but not when Pike doesn't play. If he does, flip this pick.
MISSISSIPPI Sy (+22.5) over Florida: I am still not sold on Florida yet. They win on the road, but not big.
HOUSTON (-16) over Smu: My man-crush on Case Keenum continues. Look for him to put up big numbers on a poor SMU squad.
Auburn (+7) over LSU: Auburn has struggled the last 2 weeks offensively, but they bounce back in Baton Rouge.
Tcu (-2.5) over BYU: The Horney Toads knocked BYU out of the BCS buster status last year. This year its TCU's #4 ranked defense vs. BYU's #6 ranked scoring offense. Defense should prevail on a chilly Saturday night in Provo.
STANFORD (-6.5) over Arizona St: The Cardinal is a force to be reckoned with in the PAC-10.
KENTUCKY (-14.5) over UL Monroe: Any SEC school is atleast 2 touchdowns better than any SubBelt team.

Pick of the week
MARSHALL (-7) over Uab: Marshall played WVU well. UAB is terrible. This line should be higher.
Pick of the week II
Iowa (NL) over MICHIGAN ST: I don't know if there is a good reason for there to be no line on this, but Iowa is for real.

NFL
San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY: Charges showed they can move the ball against Denver. Expect them to continue to improve against a bad KC defense.
Indianapolis (-13) over ST.LOUIS: Peyton Mannnigs stats at halftime: 13/16 287yrds 4 TDs.
Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI: The Bengals begin to unravel.
Green Bay (-7) over CLEVELAND: Over 10 Browns players have come down with a bad flu. Expect this to be a 3 touchdown game.
Minnesota (+4) over PITTSBURGH: Take the under on this game (45)
New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay: The game is in London. Brady loves shitty weather. Tampa doesn't.
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco: I am just not sold on San Fran yet. Houston is a tougher place to play than people admit.
NY Jets (-6) over OAKLAND: Oakland is getting too much credit for Philly laying an egg. Look for another huge rushing day out of Jet running backs.
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA: Just too high of a line for 2 really bad teams.
New Orleans (-6) over MIAMI: Until New Orleans doesn't cover, I am gonna keep picking them.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS: I fucking love this line. How is Dallas a 1 point favorite on a neutral field???? REALLY????
NY GIANTS (-7) over Arizona: Giants defense makes adjustments and roars back to beat up on Warner.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON: This line should be closer to 10. Only New England bounces back from a loss better than Andy Reid's Eagles.

Winners
SD, Ind, Chi, GB, Pit, NE, Hou, NYJ, Car, NO, Atl, NYG, Phi

Sexy Girl of the Week
Fergie (Stacey Fergeson)
Rumor has it she is the newest person to buy a piece of the Miami Dolphins. J-lo and Fergie should have an ass-off at halftime. I know I would finally watch Dolphins games.

College Football: Halftime Season Report

We are slightly past the Midway point of the College Football Season and about half way through the conference schedules. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest stories of the year so far.

Injuries:
So far this college season, there has been no bigger story than injuries. Say what you want about LeGarret Blounts punch in the season opener, or the suspension of Dez Bryant being bigger, they are not. Big name players injured so far this year:

*Sam Bradford - QB Oklahoma (2008 Heisman winner/Out for season)
*Matt Grothe – QB South Florida (2nd all time in yards in Big East history/Out for season)
*Darren Evans - RB Virginia Tech (#1 running back/Out for season)
*Jermaine Gresham – TE Oklahoma (rated best TE in college football/Out for season)
*Tim Tebow – QB Florida (huge tool, but starting QB for #1 team in country, 2007 Heisman winner and 2 time BCS champion/only missed 1/2 game)
*Tony Pike – QB Cincinnati (15 Tds, 3 INTS/missed 1/2 game. Could miss more)

Heisman:
It is still early to be talking Heisman, but here are my top 3.
1. Mark Ingram - RB Alabama
135 rushes- 905 yrds- 8 TDs
(Had 246 yards Saturday night against a good South Carolina defense. Completely took over that game.)
2. Tony Pike- QB Cincinnati
1,633 yds- 15Tds- 3 INTs (Left last Thursday nights game @ SFU early because he reinjured his left arm. If he returns soon and leads them to an undefeated season, he will be hard to beat.)
3. Case Keenum - QB Houston
2,464 yrds- 19TDs- 4 INTs (Leads the country in yards and touchdowns. If Houston was still undefeated, they would be in the top 10, and he would be my #1)

OH MY GOD!!!! NO TEBOW!!!!! I know he is 2nd in the nation in efficiency, undefeated and has over 400 yards rushing. But he is yet to play that WOW game that will vault him into the top 3 in my mind.

Upsets:
Officially there have been a lot of upsets this season. But the longer you look at it, there weren’t really that many “upsets” of schools. Allow me to explain.
#3 USC went to Seattle and was "upset" by unranked Washington
#4 Ole Miss went to South Carolina on a Thursday night and were “upset.”
#5 Penn State was “upset” when #17 Iowa came to Happy Valley
#5 Oklahoma St. was “upset” by unranked at the time Houston U.
#7 Ohio State went to Purdue and were “upset.”

The real situation is that these teams really aren’t that good. There are no dominant teams in college football. Texas barely beats teams it should blow out. Same thing with Florida. Only Alabama has put the hammer to teams this year, but they don’t have that good of a passing game. Which leads me to my next point…

Rankings:
I honestly believe there should not be a single poll released before the first weekend in October. There should be a good month of games before anyone decides who the #1 team in the county truly is. Preseason ranking puts teams near the top that never deserved to be there. Look at all the high seeded teams that have been knocked off. Here we are 6-7 weeks later and most of those teams are no longer in the top 10. Look at the rankings before week 1 and the rankings now.

Preseason
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Mississippi
9. (tie) Oklahoma State
9. (tie) Penn State

Today (BCS)
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Cincinnati
6. Iowa
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Miami (FL)

Therefore, 6 teams have dropped out of the top 10 is 7 weeks. 6 TEAMS!! 5 of those 6 teasm already have 2 losses this season. Guess those preseason polls were not correct. If Florida would not have been ranked unanimous #1 to start the season, I don’t think they would be now.

Bowl Projections:
BCS bowls and who I see playing in them.

Orange: Miami (FL) vs. Penn State
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa
Fiesta: Boise St. vs. USC
Championship: Alabama vs. Texas

I don’t see the Big 12 getting 2 teams this year. It’s Texas, then the rest of the conference. USC will loose to Oregon on the road and the Ducks will win the Pac-10. I wanted to find a way to put TCU in, but they still have BYU and Utah on the schedule. They would have to end up playing in the Fiesta bowl. Plus, the bowls won’t put 2 not majors in a major bowl, especially the same game. Not to mention, it would accomplish nothing for the mid-major conferences to have them playing each other.

It is going to be very interesting to see how the last 7 or so weeks of this season play out. Can Iowa run the table? Can Cincinnati? Who will win the SEC title game and go to the National Championship? Will this be the year Kirk Herbstreit gives an STD to a 21 year old college girl and gets caught? Can’t wait to watch.

Weekend Review: Week 6

NCAA
Spread: 11-7
Season: 41-44-1

5 Notes from the weekend:
1) Terrelle Pryor might be the most over-hyped college football player in the last 10 years.
2) Virginia Tech has become perennial choke artists.
3) If Tony Pike is out more than a week, Cincinnati will be in trouble. Their backup, Zach Collaros, can run, but they will need to be explosive in the passing game to continue to compete.
4) BCS rankings are out, and Alabama should be #1. Florida has not played well the last 2 weeks and is riding the coattails from their preseason ranking.
5) TCU stats from Saturday: 46 carries 275 yards 3 TDS
They had 14 different people with a rushing attempt in the game.
They outgained Colorado St. 499-182.
They play BYU in the biggest game for that program in a while this weekend.

NFL
Spread: 6-8
Season: 47-43
Picks: 9-5
Season: 61-29

5 Notes from the weekend:
1) Baltimore’s defense is not that good. Especially at cornerback.
2) It is official. Washington has the worst offense in the NFL.
3) Different season, same Philadelphia Eagles. Losing games because they abandon the run. At no point did they need to give up on what was an effective running attack.
4) Cincinnati is in trouble. They seem to not be able to handle success, and Antwan Odom, their best defense player who was off to a monster year, is out for the season.
5) Coolest thing no one talked about this weekend. Chad Johnson (that’s right I will still call him that) partnered up with a local Cincinnati business (Motorola) to buy up the remaining 1,500 tickets to keep the game from being blacked out in the Cincy area. It is rare a player does something like that.

Another good weekend in gambling for me:
NFL
Parlay:
Houston (money line +190) and
Kansas City (money line +220) WON $83

NCAA
Mississippi St. (-3.5) WON $18.18

Weekly Picks: Week 6

Missed Week 5. Too busy of a week. Lets look into Week 6.

Picks

NCAA (picks in bold. Home team in CAPS)

Cincinnati (-2.5) over SOUTH FLOIRDA: I am still riding the Tony Pike train. SFU keeps it close, but Cincy should pull this out.
RUTGERS (+3) over Pitt: The Moustache Man is bound to blow a game they should win.
Texas (-3.5) over Oklahoma: Bradford is still a little shaky and the Sooners are banged up at the skill positions. Vegas will set the over/under high. Take the under. This game is about defense.
Ohio State (-13.5) over PURDUE: OSU's offense is not good enough for them to beat good teams. But their defense is good enough to destroy bad teams.
WISCONSIN (+2.5) over Iowa: Iowa is just not good enough to remain undefeated
Georgia (-8) over VANDERBILT: Memories of Cutler are long gone.
AUBURN (-13.5) over Kentucky: The Tigers rebound after a poor performance against Arkansas.
PENN STATE (-16.5) over Minnesota: See Ohio State
WEST VIRGINIA (-20) over Marshall: The battle of the ONLY 2 schools in the state is very one-sided.
SOUTH CAROLINA (+17) over Alabama: Tide will roll, but South Carolina defense will keep this low scoring. At no point will it seem like Bama won't win this, but not by more than 17.
NOTRE DAME (+10) over Usc: I hate to admit it, but Clawson can sling that ball. USC will sqeak this one out, and Charlie Weiss will sqeeze in 4 Arby's sandwiches at halftime.
California (-3.5) over UCLA: Coming off the bye, expect the Golden Bears to get back on track. Javid Best is still the #1 player in the country in my eyes.
Houston (-17) over TULANE: I know Houston has not been that great the last few weeks, but Case Keenum is still awesome.
NEBRASKA (-10.5) over Texas Tech: Ndamukong Suh will be the #1 player in the NFL draft next year. But on Saturday, he will be a nightmare for whoever Tech puts in the shotgun.
GEORGIA TECH (+3) over Virginia Tech: This is the kinda game that Va. Tech likes to loose and fuck up their season.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-7) over Missouri: Mizzu's early season success blew up last week. Ok St. just has too much talent for them to rebound.
Miami (FL.) (-14.5) over CENTRAL FLORIDA: Miami has beat good schools this year. They should beat up on CFU.

PICK OF THE WEEK
Mississippi St. (-4.5) over MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST: This line blows my mind. How the fuck is the line this low?!? Mississippi St. was 1 yard away from beating the #4 team in the country!! Did 3/4 of the team come down with AIDS???

NFL (picks in bold. Home team in CAPS)
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON: I hate to say it, but the Skins are gonna loose this game.
Houston (+4.5) over CINCINNATI: Cincy just came off 5 straight heart attack games. They have the Bears and Ravens at home the next 2 weeks. Everyone say it with me.... TRAP GAME!!!
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland: Polamalu is supposed to be back. What do you think the over/under on Derek Anderson completions this week is... 4????
Baltimore (+2.5) over MINNESOTA: I keep doubting that fucker Favre and he keeps playing well, but this is their first real test. We saw last week how good San Fran actually is.
JACKSONVILLE (-10) over St. Louis: Vegas is getting killed by Rams lines this year.
Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland: Vegas is also getting killed by Raider lines.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over NY Giants: Game of the year so far. I honestly see this coming down to secondary play, and the Giants have been banged up there all year.
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Carolina: There are only 2 home underdogs in the NFL this week. Tampa is the only 1 that will cover. Tampa is squirlley.
GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Detroit: Just watch the Lions crumble in the second half, especailly if Megatron is hurt.
SEATTLE (-2.5) over Arizona: Healthy Hasselbeck. I think a late Warner INT ends this game.
NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo: WOW are the Bills bad. I am guessing 9 Jets sacks.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee: Brady finally gets the timing back with his receivers against a very poor Titans seconday.
Chicago (+3.5) over ATLANTA: This will be a good game. Another "Future of the NFL" game with 2 great young QBs. The team that runs the ball better will win this one. Atlanta wins by 3.
SAN DIEGO (-4) over Denver: Champ will shut down Vincent Jackson. Watch for Antonio Gates to have a big day.

Winners:
KC, Hou, Pit, Bal, Jax, NO, Car, GB, Phi, Sea, NYJ, NE, Atl, SD

Sexy girl of the week:
Faith Hill.
Has she ever looked better then she does in the opening promo for Sunday Night Football?? Good work NBC.

Baseball Playoff Preview

Lets review what my predictions come out to from about 2 months ago.

NLDS (winners in bold)
My pick:
Cardinals vs Dodgers
Giants vs Phillies

Actual:
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Rockies vs. Phillies

The 3 division winners wern't hard to predict. I thought that the pitching for the Giants would hold out, but their offense just was too poor.

ALDS (winners in bold)
My Pick:
Rangers vs. Yankess
White Sox vs. Angels

Actual:
Twins vs. Yankees
Boston vs. Angels

Alot of changes went down. White Sox stunk. Tigers collapsed. Boston got healthy.

Now my predictions for the rest of the playoffs. (winners in Bold)

NL:
Cardinals vs Dodgers (in 3)
Rockiers vs. Phillies (in 4)

Cardinals vs. Phillies (in 6)

This comes down to offense and the Phillies have the better one. 4 of the best pitchers in basbeball will duke it out, but Philly has better depth to the rotation, even though their bullpen is shaky.

AL:
Twins vs. Yankess (in 3)
Boston vs. Angels (in 4)

Boston vs. Yankess (in 7)

I know that Boston probably has a deeper rotation, and they have a better bullpen. The Yankess just have such a dominant offense its hard to go against them. I think Burnett has a great series to give them the edge.

World Series:
Phillies vs. Yankees (in 6)

I know I picked the Phillies 2 months ago, but that was before their bullpen completely fell apart. They will probably loose 2 games becuase of their bullpen and the Yanks walk away with this. Baseball writers will give the series MVP to Mrs. Minka Kelly.

Weekly Review: Week 4

NCAA
Spread: 6-9
Season: 30-37-1

Notes from the weekend:
1) Cal has self destructed.
2) TCU’s defense is for real
3) Offense is the new cool thing in the SEC
4) Karma came back and bit Tim Tebow in the ass for being a complete tool.
5) There is no solidity for a team outside #1 Florida, #2Texas, #3Alabama and #5 Boise St.

NFL
Spread: 7-7
Season: 34-28
Picks: 9-5
Season: 43-19

1) There are some REALLY bad teams out there.
2) Dallas is not good. Neither is Romo.
3) Denver is the kind of team that just finds a way to win. They aren’t good enough to beat good teams, but they find ways to win.

Another good weekend in gambling for me:
NFL
6-point tease:
NYG (-3)
Baltimore (+8) WON $45

6 point tease:
Chi (-3.5)
Cincinnati (+1) WON $17

Parlay:
Buf at Mia under (u/37) and TB at Wash (u/37) LOST $20

NCAA
6-point tease:
Alabama (-9)
Virginia Tech (-10.5)
Auburn (+8)
Arkansas (+6) LOST $28

6-point tease:
Auburn (+8)
Arkansas (+6) WON $27

Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Another week, another chance for the Kansas City Chiefs to get embarrased... and booed at home.

Lets get into the picks.

Picks in bold. Home teams in CAPS.

NCAA
LOUISVILLE (+6.5) over Pitt: The Panthers defense looked terrible in loosing their 14-point lead to NC State.
South Florida (-6.5) over SYRACUSE: Have the Bulls found their QB of the future
NC State (+1) over WAKE FOREST: State's QB is good and Wake has been unimpressive this year
Clemson (-13) over MARYLAND: What has happened to the Terps???
Alabama (-16) over KENTUCKY: Alabama is the best team in the country right now. They are amazing on defense, and have a good QB and good running game as well. They are the Balitmore Ravens of college football right now.
Cincinnati (-28.5) over MIAMI (OH.): Good teams should blow out bad teams. Cincinnati is a good team.
Virginia Tech (-16.5) over DUKE: Duke is just terrible.
GEORGIA (-3) over Lsu: LSU almost lost at Mississippi St. last week if not for a punt return and a luckily deflected ball on the goal line. Georgia is a better team with better home field advantage. Georgia has a thing for winning close games this year. Vegas set this line to push, and I think it will.
MIAMI (FL) (+7) over Oklahoma: Bradford will not start. Miami's defense is not Idaho St. A freshman QB will not do well.
Penn State (-7) over ILLINOIS: Ohio State beat the Illini 30-0 and have no offense.
Michigan (+2) over MICHIGAN ST: How is State a favorite in this game? They have been terrible this year.
Arkansas (-1) over TEXAS A&M: Arkansas got blown out by Alabama. Read what I said about Alabama above.
Auburn (+2.5) over TENNESSEE: Tennessee has a tough defense, but Auburn has one of the best offenses in the SEC.
CALIFORNIA (+5) over Usc: I think Javid Best has a huge game after last week's debacle. I am not sold on Matt Barkley yet.

Pick of the Week:
Houston (-15) over UTEP: They might put up more points then Texas did last week (64)

NFL
HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland: I really have no idea on this game. Houston is the most inconsistent team in the NFL. But Russell is the worst QB in the NFL.
Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: Alot of Titans fans will make the 9 hour drive from Nashville and make this a home game.
Baltimore (+2) over New England: Baltimore's rush will eat Brady alive.
Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland: Expect 100+ yds out of Cedric Benson.
NY Giants (-9.5) over Kansas City: Just watch film from last weeks Giants-Bucs game.
CHICAGO (-10) over Detriot: Matt Forte finally finds the running he has lost from last season.
Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON: Another "cover your eyes" game for the Skins'. Just plain sloppy football from both teams.
INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Seattle: Manning is just out of control this year. Remember when I picked Seattle to win the NFC West??
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over NY Jets: It is hard to say that the Skaints will win by this much. But, incase you didn't notice, the Saint are 2nd in the NFL in rushing.
Buffalo (-2) over Miami: Another "cover your eyes game." Over/under passing yards total: 236
SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis: Welcome back Candlestick Park. No Man-Bear-Pig Frank "Al" Gore, no worries. Glen Coffee looked great in the preseason and the Rams are just terrible.
Dallas (-3) over DENVER: This is another good line by Vegas. This will probably push. Dallas's #1 rush offense (193.7 yrds/game) against Denver's #7 rush defense (78.3 yrds/game). Something has to give
San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH: Scoring difference of all 3 Steelers game this year: won by 3, lost by 3, lost by 3. Scoring difference of all 3 Chargers games this year: won by 4, lost by 5, won by 10. No way the final score clears a touchdown.
Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA: Green Bay leads the NFL in takeaways and they are about to play Brett Favre. As long as they keep Peterson in check, they should take this game.

PICKS
Hou, Ten, Bal, Cin, NYG, Chi, Wash, Ind, NO, Buf, SF, Dal, Pit, GB

Hot Girl of the Week:
Former Pro Bowler Jeff Garcia was released from the Philadelphia Eagles this week. Too bad for him. He has to go to home to his multi-million dollars and his incredibly hot wife, Carmella. (I think he is gonna be just fine)