Thursday, February 4, 2010

Super Bowl Preview

First off, I would like to point out (because I am a prick) how close I was on the Championship Weekend predictions.
Jets @ Colts
Mine: 27-10 Colts
Actual: 30-17 Colts

Vikings @ Saints
Mine: 31-27 Saints
Actual: 31-28 Saints

Ok. I just had to get that out of my system. Lets take an advanced look at what should be an awesome Super Bowl.

6:25 EST
New Orleans Saints: 15-3 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 16-2 (-5)
Outlook:
It doesn't take Tom Jackson to figure out that this will be a high scoring game. Both teams are elite at QB and have tons of weapons to get the ball to.
Biggest question mark: How much blitzing will Greg Williams do?
Drew Brees is good against be blitz but Manning is better. Brees also can be rattled by a good defense end (see Ware, DeMarcus). The Saints don't have an elite 4 man rush so they will need to bring 5-6 players consistently. Manning eats up the blitz better than any QB in the NFL though (see Jets, New York)
Key Matchup #1: Jonathan Stinchcomb vs Robert Mathis
With Freeney's looming ankle injury, it will be up to Robert Mathis to aplly pressure on Brees and squeeze the pocket. No one in the NFL is better at stepping up in the pocket and making throws than Brees. Also, New Orleans will attempt to run underneath the speed rushing Mathis, and Stinchcomb will need to push him around.
Key Matchup #2: Peyton Manning vs. Darren Sharper
2 of the best at their position in the NFL in a non-stop chess match that will last all game. Sharper is known for his ability to read quarterbacks and ball hawk as good as anyone. Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. However, keep in mind that Manning threw 16 INTs the season and was intercepted twice by Ed Reed in the Divisional Round win over Baltimore (only 1 couted, the other was called back by a penalty). If Manning can keep Sharper guessing wrong and get behind him, goodnight.
Possible deciding factor #1: Special Teams
Pop quiz: Who is the kick and punt returner for Indianapolis?? Now how about New Orleans???
Yeah. New Orleans definitely has the advantage here. Despite his short comings as an every down back, Reggie Bush is explosive when you give him space (i.e. punt return). In week 16, Brad Smith of the jets took a kick return 106 yards and set an NFL record. If New Orleans can swing field position in their favor, or take one back, they will have a lot better chance of winning.
Possible deciding factor #2: The Final Countdown
There were no teams better in the last 2 minutes of each half of putting points on the board then Indy and N.O., nor were there 2 better QBs than Manning and Brees. This game has the "team to score last wins" tag written all over it.
Prediction: Saints 34-30; I just have this feeling that the Saints will ride the energy of this game early and jump out to a 24-10 lead at the half. Manning is the best at adjusting in the NFL. Down 30-27 with a hair over 2 minutes left, Brees will rally and score a TD to win 34-30 and give the city of New Orleans a well deserved Super Bowl.
MVP: Brees 27-38 362 yrds 3 TDs


Last Week:
line 1-1
picks 2-0

Playoffs:
line 1-5
picks 4-2

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