NFL pre Thanksgiving review

As one would expect, there are some things I got wrong in my early projections, and some things I got right. I had some teams being good that aren't (Dallas, San Francisco, Houston, San Diego, Minnesota) but I underestimated more teams (New York Jets, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Chicago).

So lets take a look at some of the projections I made, and where I was wrong.

1. Prediction: Maurice Jones-Drew to be the one to get injured and destroy peoples' fantasy teams
Reality: MJD is quietly having a very good year, and has turned it on as of late. It was Tony Romo and Ryan Matthews who got hurt and killed peoples' fantasy teams
Going Forward: There is still at least 2 major players out there to get hurt and ruin things. I am going with Ladanian Tomlinson as the "good" player, and Michael Vick as the "star" player.

2. Prediction: I had Dallas as the 1 seed, 49ers winning the NFC West and Vikings around 10-6 and getting in the playoffs. Also, Colts and Chargers taking the byes in the AFC and the Dolphins getting in the playoffs.
Reality: The Cowboys, 49ers and Vikings are atrocious, and no-one seems to want to win the NFC West. The AFC byes are going to go to the winners of the East and North, not the West and South.
Going Forward: Dallas, Minnesota and San Francisco will most likely start 2011 with different coaches than 2010. The Colts will probably get a 3 seed and the Chargers will probably make a late surge to sneak in as a 4 seed.

3. Prediction: The Buccaneers, Rams, Panthers, Bills, Browns, Lions, Sehawks, Bears, Broncos and Bengals will be at the bottom of the league this year.
Reality: The Panthers, Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Broncos and Bengals are all at the bottom of the league this year. The Rams, Buccaneers and Bears are in contention to make the playoffs. The Browns have beaten the Saints and Patriots.
Going Forward: The Panthers will be drafting Andrew Luck. The Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Broncos and Bengals, will be joined by the Cowboys, Cardinals, Vikings and 49ers to round out the top 10 of the NFL draft next year. The Bucs and Bears will probably miss the playoffs, but barely. The Rams will make the playoffs as the NFC West champs, but will have a worse record than the Bucs or Bears.

Now lets look at some of what I got right:

1. Prediction: The Bengals and Cowboys locker rooms will implode after 3-5 starts.
Reality: BINGO!!! The only thing I had wrong, was that they would both start 2-7, and the Cowboys fired Wade Phillips when they were 1-7.
Going Forward: Look for Cincy to follow suit, and Marvin Lewis to be selling insurance in Columbus, OH next year.

2. Prediction: Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, 49ers, Vikings, Saints, Colts, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots, Steelers and Dolphins would all make the playoffs this year.
Reality: 7 of the 12 are playoffs teams, and if the Chargers make their usual late season run, it could make 8.
Going Forward: I originally took the Colts over the Packers in the Super Bowl, but both teams have been riddled with injury this year and might not have the strength to make it.

Predictions for the remaining 6 weeks:

Prediction 1: The St. Louis Rams will make the playoffs.
Yes, the St. Louis Rams will actually make the playoffs. Steven Jackson has been as solid as ever, Sam Bradford has been very impressive as a rookie, and they have a pretty easy schedule down the stretch. They will need 9 wins and play @ Seattle (who is only good at home) week 17, so it won't be that easy.

Prediction 2: In an all-time scumbag move, Brett Favre will announce his retirement after week 14. Then attempt to come back 2 days later.
The Vikings play the New York Giants that week, then Chicago the following week. The Giants have knocked out 5 QBs out of games this year. Favre will take an absolute beating by NY and eventually decide trying to play against Julius Peppers the following week is a bad idea.

Prediction 3: Aaron Rogers will go on a 8 game tear like we have not seen before.
Rogers has been crazy good in his last 2 games (49-65, 590 yrds, 7TDs, 0 INTs). They play at Atlanta, SF, @ Detroit, @ NE, NYG, Chicago to close out the season. All 6 teams have had issues against the passing game, and the Packer offense in running on all cylinders. If they win 5 of them they finish 12-4 and will get the #2 seed. Which brings up my next point....

Prediction 4: The Atlanta Falcons will be the #1 seed in the NFC.
I know that is not that bold of a prediction when they have the best record in the NFC, but you need to look at the schedule. If they beat GB this week at home, they still have at Tampa and New Orleans at home as their only remaining difficult games. They are almost unbeatable at home and should be able to get to 12-4 or even 13-3.

Prediction 5: The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West.
You can just feel them making a run and winning 6 of their remaining 7 games. Denver, @ Indy, Oakland, KC, SF, at Cincy, at Denver. Other than the game at Indy, that is a cakewalk for them. They are very good at home and should finish 10-6. KC is 3-4 in their last 7 and Matt Cassell will probably fall apart down the stretch.

Prediction 6: My playoff predictions.

NFC
1. Atlanta 13-3
2. Green Bay 12-4
3. Philadelphia 11-5
4. St. Louis 9-7
5. New Orleans 12-4
6. New York Giants 10-6

AFC
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Indianapolis 10-6
4. San Diego 10-6
5. New York Jets 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 11-5